This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979:Q1-2003:Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith...

This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with a general multifactor error structure. The unobserved factors and the individual-specific errors are allowed to follow arbitrary stationary processes, and the number of unobserved factors need not be...

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting economic and financial variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, previously estimated by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) and Dees, Holly, Pesaran, and...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) and focuses on two issues: the weak instrument problem and the characterization of the steady states. It proposes some solutions from a global perspective. Using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model steady...

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

The standard derivation of a Phillips curve from a DSGE model requires that all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states. But in practice this is not done. The steady state for output is estimated by some statistical procedure, such as the HP filter, and the steady state for...