This paper extends the analysis of infinite dimensional vector autoregressive (IVAR) models proposed in Chudik and Pesaran (2011) to the case where one of the variables or the cross-section units in the IVAR model is dominant or pervasive. It is an important extension from empirical as well...

This paper provides an overview of the recent literature on estimation and inference in large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence. It reviews panel data models with strictly exogenous regressors as well as dynamic models with weakly exogenous regressors. The paper begins with a...

In this paper we consider the problem of interpreting the signs of the estimated coefficients in multivariate time series regressions where the regressors are correlated. Using a continuous time model, we argue that focussing on the signs of individual coefficients in such regressions could be...

This paper examines the impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy over the past hundred years, spanning the period 1908-2010. It is shown that although oil has been produced in Iran over a very long period, its importance in the Iranian economy was relatively small up until the early 1960s....

This paper provides a new approach to forecasting time series that are subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks occurring over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of...

This paper extends the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach developed by Pesaran (2006) to heterogeneous panel data models with lagged dependent variable and/or weakly exogenous regressors. We show that the CCE mean group estimator continues to be valid but the following two conditions must...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for one step ahead forecasts. Under continuous breaks, our approach largely recovers...

This paper investigates the long-run effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in dynamic...

This paper investigates the long-run effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in dynamic...

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a...