The problem of predicting 0-1-events is considered under general conditions, including stationary processes with short and long memory as well as processes with changing distribution patterns. Nonparametric estimates of the probability function and prediction intervals are obtained.

In a continuous time, arbitrage free, non-complete market with a zero bond, we find the intertemporal price for risk to equal the standard deviation of the discounted variance opti- mal martingale measure divided by the zero bond price. We show the Hedging Numeraire to equal the Market Portfolio...

Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estima- tion of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if...

Der Gesetzgeber laesst im Handelsgesetzbuch (HGB) zahlreiche mathematisch-statistische Stichprobenverfahren zur Inventur zu. Die dort vorgeschriebenen Richtlinien finden auch in anderen Sparten der Wirtschaftsprüfung bei statistischen Hochrechnungen Verwendung. Eigentuemliche Vorstellungen...

We consider the demand for state contingent claims in the presence of a zero-mean, nonhedgeable background risk. An agent is defined to be generalized risk averse if he/she reacts to an increase in background risk by choosing a demand function for contingent claims with a smaller slope. We show...

The existence of an adapted solution to a backward stochastic differential equation which is not adapted to the filtration of the underlying Brownian motion is proved. This result is applied to the pricing of contingent claims. It allows to compare the prices of agents who have different...

This paper presents structural estimates for a bargaining model which nests the right-to-manage, the efficient wage bargaining, the seniority and the standard neo- classical labor demand model as special cases. In contrast to most existing models, our approach accounts for heterogeneous skill...