The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and … extreme value distribution of risk. We use a rich data set from the US equity market to explore when this additional …

Despite the use of VaR as a means to control risk, using VaR can have the opposite effect. VaR is used by bank and … insurance regulators more than any other risk measure. A value-at-risk (VaR) constraint on the probability that future firm …