This paper shows that forward default intensities in the Black and Cox (1976) model of corporate default can be expressed in terms of the Mills Ratio (Mills, 1926). The behavior of the forward default intensity and hence the survivorship functions then follows from inequalities that are...

Empirical tests of reduced form models of default attribute a large fraction of observed credit spreads to compensation for jump-to-default risk. However, these models preclude a "contagion-risk'' channel, where the aggregate corporate bond index reacts adversely to a credit event. In this...

Rating migration variation or volatility, as rating migration uncertainty, is a real-life phenomenon, that can be measured empirically. The study extends reduced form bond valuation models based on rating migration (matrices), by allowing variation in the rating migration matrix, as opposed to...