This study examines the relationship between current-account imbalances and economic growth during the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis for 179 countries (covered by IMF data) and within the EU-27 countries (covered by Eurostat data). The countries are divided into 4 groups by GDP per...

Growing current account imbalances within the euro area between 1999 and 2007 were not driven by divergences in export performance between surplus and deficit countries. While current account dynamics are highly correlated with unit labour costs (ULC) and imports, it is not the case for exports....

Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises with severe economic and social costs. We propose an early warning model that predicts such crises. We identify a set of macroeconomic indicators capturing domestic and external...