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countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric … of the sovereign crisis has been broadly in line with the deterioration of economic fundamentals for most countries. …
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This paper tests variants of the Black (1995) model for pricing the sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The default intensity of each country is driven by two latent Gaussian factors. The model, which well fits observed CDS rates, can only be...
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