Pressures on both revenue and spending are skewed to add to borrowing over the next few years, and threaten the "centrality" of official forecasts.

The Chancellor is in a fiscal bind as low growth and high debt interest payments limit any room for manoeuvre in the forthcoming Autumn Statement.

Chancellors don't respond symmetrically to good and bad economic news. This represents a risk to the accuracy of official borrowing forecasts.

The reason why both earnings growth and inflation matter for the state pension is the pensions 'triple lock'. In place since 2011 (except for a one-year temporary suspension in 2022), under the triple lock the state pension rises in line with the highest of CPI inflation, average earnings growth...

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will announce his second Budget, and fourth fiscal event, on Wednesday 6 March. This will possibly be the final fiscal event of the current parliament. With the big rise in tax revenues as a share of national income since 2019 only being partially offset by the cuts to...

It is well known that in the UK defined benefit pensions are more prevalent in the public sector than in the private sector. Furthermore, we find that the average value of accrual to members of both defined benefit pensions and defined contribution pensions is lower in the private sector than in...

This paper tries to assess whether or not we have any empirical evidence of links between early retirement and youth unemployment. Most economists would today dismiss the idea immediately as another version of the naive 'lump-of-labor fallacy'. In its most basic form, this proposition holds that...

We use a unique dataset, containing individual survey data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing linked to administrative data on earnings histories from administrative records, to construct measures of lifetime earnings and examine how these relate to financial resources in retirement....