In this article we examine the persistence nature of Taiwan's aggregate output fluctuations by using the 'innovation regime-switching' (IRS) model in which the effect of an innovation may be permanent or transitory, depending on an unobservable state variable that follows a first order Markov...

The influence of climate variability on agricultural production and financial risks faced by an individual or an institution has been the center of the public discussion in the recent years. The changing weather patterns and environmental conditions could cause substantial unpredicted economic...

In this article, we propose a new test for Markov switching models. Unlike the tests in the existing literature (e.g. Hansen, 1992; Garcia, 1998; Cho and White, 2007), we focus on testing the null of two regimes, instead of one single regime, in a switching framework. To implement our test, we propose a...

Various trading rules involving derivatives have been widely applied by practitioners under a wide range of market conditions to date, however, few econometric models can provide a way to accurately decide when to apply those strategies. In this paper, we employ the Innovation Regime-Switching...

In this paper we propose a general component-driven model to analyze economic data with different characteristics (or regimes) in different time periods. Motivated by empirical data characteristics, our discussion focuses on a simple model driven by a random walk component and a stationary ARMA...