Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time-series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...

To allow for an improved health progression for the elderly, we adjusted the health index for those aged 40–90 proportionally to their age minus 40 and the calendar year minus 2000 in such a way that a 90-year-old person in 2040 will have the same health as an 80 years old in the base...

Microsimulation is a technique that uses the capacity of modern computers to make microunits act and interact in such a way that it is possible to aggregate to the level of interest. A microsimulation model can be seen as a set of rules, which operates on a sample of microunits such as...