Instrumental variable (IV) estimation methods that allow for certain nonlinear functions of the data as instruments are studied. The context of the discussion is the simple unit root model where certain advantages to the use of nonlinear instruments are revealed. In particular, certain classes...

This paper develops a new framework and statistical tools to analyze stock returns using high frequency data. We consider a continuous-time multi-factor model via a continuous-time multivariate regression model incorporating realistic empirical features, such as persistent stochastic...

In this paper, we analyze regressions with observations collected at small time intervals over a long period of time. For the formal asymptotic analysis, we assume that samples are obtained from continuous time stochastic processes, and let the sampling interval δ shrink down to zero and the...

This paper examines third-party trade and its implications for conflicts between hostile countries not engaging in trade. We present a conflict-theoretic model to analyze two adversaries' endogenous arming decisions when they separately establish a free trade agreement (FTA) with a neutral...

This article studies the estimation of state space models whose parameters are switching endogenously between two regimes, depending on whether an autoregressive latent factor crosses some threshold level. Endogeneity stems from the sustained impacts of transition innovations on the latent...

This article studies the estimation of state space models whose parameters are switching endogenously between two regimes, depending on whether an autoregressive latent factor crosses some threshold level. Endogeneity stems from the sustained impacts of transition innovations on the latent...

Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful measure of oil market risk (or oil price uncertainty) for policy makers and...