We develop a framework to theoretically and empirically analyze the fluctuations of the ag- gregate stock market. Households allocate capital to institutions, which are fairly constrained, for example operating with a mandate to maintain a fixed equity share or with moderate scope for variation....

We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security's expected return is decomposed into its “carry” – an ex-ante and model-free characteristic – and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns...

We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security's expected return is decomposed into its “carry” – an ex-ante and model-free characteristic – and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns...

We use data from the aggregate stock market and dividend futures to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth evolve across horizons in response to the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent policy responses until June 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the...

We use data from the aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth evolve across horizons in response to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to...

We develop a framework to theoretically and empirically analyze the fluctuations of the aggregate stock market. Households allocate capital to institutions, which are fairly constrained, for example operating with a mandate to maintain a fixed equity share or with moderate scope for variation in...

We show that bond factors, which predict future U.S. economic activity at business cycle horizons, are priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. High book-to-market stocks have larger exposures to these bond factors than low book-to-market stocks, because their cash flows are more...