We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict...

We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend...

We present evidence on the term structure of the equity premium. We recover prices of dividend strips, which are short-term assets that pay dividends on the stock index every period up to period T and nothing thereafter. It is short-term relative to the index because the index pays dividends in...

We study a new data set of dividend derivatives with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose the equity yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend...

We construct a new consumption measure as a residual from the budget constraint. Consumption is that part of income that is not used to increase assets. Our measurement relies on detailed Swedish registry data on the various sources of income and the composition of households' asset portfolio,...

We propose a latent-variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the whole history of the price-dividend ratio and dividend growth rates to...

We study an institutional investment problem in which a centralized decision maker, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO), for example, employs multiple asset managers to implement and execute investment strategies in separate asset classes. The CIO allocates capital to the managers who, in turn,...

We rigorously explain the numerical approach used in the above-mentioned paper. The methodology is based on Brandt, Goyal, Santa-Clara, and Stroud (2005) (Review of Financial Studies) and Carroll (2006) (Economics Letters). In addition to combining these numerical techniques, we suggest two...

We solve a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the representative household has Epstein and Zin recursive preferences. The parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by means of maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and asset prices, with a...

We develop a tractable exactly solved present-value model to study the dynamics of stock returns, dividend growth rates, and the price-dividend ratio. We show that standard predictive regressions of returns and dividend growth rates on the lagged price-dividend ratio suffer from a problem that...