Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid...

When a firm is unable to roll over its debt, it may have to seek more expensive sources of financing or even liquidate its assets. This paper provides a normative analysis of minimizing such rollover risk, through the optimal dynamic choice of the maturity structure of debt. The objective of a...

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth,...

This paper develops a life-cycle model in which a household faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption, health expenditure, and the allocation of its wealth between bonds, stocks, and housing. The model is calibrated to explain the cross-sectional variation and the joint...

Empirical studies have suggested that stock returns can be predicted by ï¬nancial variables such as the dividend-price ratio. However, these studies typically ignore the high persistence of predictor variables, which can make ï¬rst-order asymptotics a poor approximation in ï¬nite samples....

In the instrumental variables (IV) regression model, weak instruments can lead to bias in estimators and size distortion in hypothesis tests. This paper examines how weak instruments affect the identification of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) through the linearized Euler...

This paper evaluates the equity premium using novel data on the consumption of luxury goods. Specifying household utility as a nonhomothetic function of the consumption of both a luxury good and a basic good, we derive pricing equations and evaluate the risk of holding equity. Household survey...

This paper contributes to what is known about the impact of school quality, by documenting its effect on the incomes of Black South Africans, using data from the 1996 South African census and two national surveys of school quality. South Africa provides an interesting laboratory for studying the...

This paper evaluates the return on equity using novel data on the consumption of luxury goods. Specifying household utility as a nonhomothetic function of the consumption of both a luxury good and a basic good, we derive and evaluate the riskiness of equity in such a world. Household survey and...