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ambiguous decision tasks, where a subject faces two-stage lotteries with binomial, uniform or unknown second-order probabilities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014165098
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
aversion. This paper obtains a joint representation for these behavioral phenomena. The decision maker as portrayed by my model …. This set is interpreted as a collection of the decision maker's possible future beliefs. When choices cannot be deferred …, the decision maker evaluates every uncertain prospect via an epsilon-mixture of the least favorable element in the set …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011699104
The Ellsberg paradox is often cited as evidence for unknowable "ambiguity" versus computable "risk", and a refutation of the Savage axioms regarding expected utility maximization and the program for revealing "subjective" or "belief-type" probabilities. This note argues that researchers have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129111
We introduce a model of random ambiguity aversion. Choice is stochastic due to unobserved shocks to both information and ambiguity aversion. This is modeled as a random set of beliefs in the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). We characterize the model and show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012587418
aversion. This highlights the importance of counseling for decision-making under uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012204037
This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Consistent … Planning via axioms on preferences over decision trees. Furthermore, it shows how to elicit conditional preferences from prior … decision models and updating rules. Hence, the results indicate that (i) ambiguity attitudes, (ii) updating rules, and (iii …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014054184
The Savage and the Anscombe-Aumann frameworks are the two most popular approaches used when modeling ambiguity. The former is more flexible, but the latter is often preferred for its simplicity. We conduct an experiment where subjects place bets on the joint outcome of an ambiguous urn and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112248
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