According to the macro-econometric literature, the impact of exogenous oil price shocks on Inflation have greatly increased in the last two decades throughout OECD countries while the persistence of those shocks on long-term inflation, namely core inflation, has dramatically decreased. In the...

This paper investigates pairs trading strategy by using the cointegration method among the 10 most popular agricultural future markets. It is found that only in 2 pairs shows trading signal. The pairs trading strategy is performed in two stages that are the formation period and the trading...

Even though commodity pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures...

We investigate the maturity-structure of roll strategy returns in the energy futures markets. Our innovation is to report and analyze the risk/return profile, the Sharpe ratio, and the asset pricing loadings of rollover strategies based on futures contracts of the same underlying commodity but...

Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000) are perhaps the two most significant laws signed by President Clinton. They have opened the door for banks to invest, speculate and gamble on the paths of price movements of securities and commodities without any...

While much is known about the financialization of commodities, less is known about how to profitably invest in commodities. We develop a four-factor asset pricing model of commodity returns. Our four-factor model prices both commodity spot and term risk premia in an intuitive manner related to...

We introduce a new methodology to estimate the latent factors of a multivariate jump diffusion process illustrated with an application to the commodity futures term structure. Specifically, we propose a new state space form and then use a modified Kalman filter to estimate models with latent...

Commodity Futures were reintroduced a few years into the beginning of the millennia. After ahealthy run, signs of corrections were seen in the Indian commodity markets in 2012. Butunearthing of the NSEL Spot Exchange scam of Rs 5,600 crore in July 2013, had disastrousconsequences on the volume...

We apply the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices in five commodity markets (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). To this end, we first extend the FCVAR model to accommodate deterministic trends in the...

This paper provides novel findings on idiosyncratic momentum in commodity futures. Momentum strategy that forms portfolios on the basis of commodity-specific returns delivers compelling investment returns which are substantially more robust and superior to total return momentum on an absolute...