Annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI index provides a novel and strong identification to estimate the shape of supply curves for commodity futures contracts. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2017, we show that cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) reach a peak of 59 basis...

The paper develops a price discovery model for commodity futures markets that accounts for two forms of limits to arbitrage caused by transaction costs and noise trader risk. Four market regimes are identified: (1) effective arbitrage, (2) transaction costs but no noise trader risk, (3) no...

We find that commodity futures returns contain information relevant to stock market returns and macroeconomic fundamentals for a large number of countries. Commodity futures returns predict stock market returns in 59 out of 70 countries and macroeconomic fundamentals in 62 countries. This...

Using hand-collected data of commodity futures contracts going back to 1877, we replicate in the pre-sample history the well-documented cross-sectional commodity factor premia of momentum, value and basis. All three premia remain significantly positive in the additional 80-plus years of...

This paper examines the effects of the nondiscretionary trading demands of VIX exchangetradedproducts (ETPs) issuers on the prices and volumes in the VIX futures. We find thatthe ETPs’ information-less, mechanical rebalancing of futures positions to maintain theconstant maturity of the index...

We gather extensive global price and volume information to establish that exhaustible mineral commodities are both affordable and abundant. On average, we extract a kilogram of mineral for every 5$ of GDP, at a cost of 1⁄4$. We predict that economic growth will progressively decouple from...

This paper seeks to investigate the time-varying conditional correlations to the crude oil futures contract returns and the private Credit Default Swap market returns of Germany and France. We employ a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional...

Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to...

We document the impact of the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic on liquidity in U.S. agricultural markets. Notably, we show that soybean futures-market depth collapses weeks before the U.S. financial markets’ crash of March 2020. Soybean futures liquidity is affected the earliest, the...