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Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag-lengths imply a poor approximation to DSGE-models. Empirically, short lag-length is deemed necessary as increased...
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line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …
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forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it), using high …
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