In this article we examine the sensitivity of the foreign exchange market to central bank intervention. Using a time varying Markov switching model we separate periods of relatively stable market conditions from volatile periods and look at the dynamic of the causality effect under different...

This paper examines the relative performance of some popular nonlinearity tests when applied to time series generated by Markov switching autoregressive models. The nonlinearity tests considered include RESET-type tests, the Keenan test, the Tsay test, the McLeod--Li test, the BDS test, the...

This article considers the problem of selecting among competing nonlinear time series models by using complexity-penalized likelihood criteria. An extensive simulation study is undertaken to assess the small-sample performance of several popular criteria in selecting among nonlinear...

This paper examines the relative performance of some popular nonlinearity tests when applied to time series generated by Markov switching autoregressive models. The nonlinearity tests considered include RESET-type tests, the Keenan test, the Tsay test, the McLeod--Li test, the BDS test, the...

This paper is concerned with the problem of joint determination of the state dimension and autoregressive order of models with Markov-switching parameters. A model selection procedure is proposed which is based on optimization of complexity-penalized likelihood criteria. The efficacy of the...

This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between ination and stock returns in four ination targeting countries. We find that following the introduction of formal targets, ination persistence and the magnitude of volatility spillovers between ination and stock returns have been reduced.

This paper analyzes the 2002 Argentine crisis using the Jeanne and Masson (2000) model with sunspots. Testing this model empirically through a Markov-switching model suggests that self-sulfilling prophecies is a reasonable explanation for the devaluation of the peso.

This paper proposes a new procedure for analyzing volatility links between different markets based on a bivariate Markov switching model. An empirical application of this procedure to three emerging markets is examined and discussed.