This paper uses a seasonal long-memory model to capture the behaviour of the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) over the period 1919Q1-2022Q4. This series is found to display a large value of the periodogram at the zero, long-run frequency, and to exhibit an order of integration around 1. When...

This paper introduces a new modelling approach that incorporates nonlinear, exponential deterministic terms into a fractional integration model. The proposed model is based on a specific version of Robinson's (1994) tests and is more general that standard time series models, which only allow for...

This paper examines persistence in tax revenues in a set of 21 OECD countries over the period 1965-2021 using long-range dependence techniques based on fractional integration. The results imply that there are only a few cases of mean reversion: one for total revenue (Switzerland); three for VAT...

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and led to large increases in shipping costs. This paper first provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures by using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al....

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables...