Sovereign credit risk in developed countries was essentially non-existent prior to 2009. We find new factors suggesting that a part of the European sovereign risk premium is exogenously determined. We capture a novel phase synchronization that is associated with an increase in the cost of public...

This paper proposes a novel approach to study the macroeconomic effects of oil prices, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data. Using variation in futures prices around OPEC announcements as an instrument, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have...

OPEC+ has set a goal of establishing a stable oil market and achieving a reasonable oil price that benefits all industry stakeholders and the global citizenry. But what price is reasonable? We examine the effect of the oil-price threshold on external balances with the aim of evaluating a...

Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil treat storage demand as a composite of precautionary responses to uncertainty and speculative behavior, due to difficulties in jointly identifying these distinct demand components. This difficulty arises because the underlying...

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...

The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...

Using the aggregate number of oil rigs as a proxy of oil investment, I evaluate the bidirectional relationship between oil prices and oil investment in OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. We take advantage of Bayesian estimation techniques and innovation accounting to incorporate the long run dynamics...

Analysing causality among oil prices and, in general, among financial and economic variables is of central relevance in applied economics studies. The recent contribution of Lu et al. (2014) proposes a novel test for causality- the DCC-MGARCH Hong test. We show that the critical values of the...

The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...