In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching is proposed to measure and predict turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities of...

The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we...

This paper examines the impact of outdoor temperature on media bias. We use 12 years of daily hand-coded data on the tonality of news broadcast by the three major US news networks, ABC News, CBS News, and NBC News, all headquartered in New York City, and merge it with granular, geospatial...

Were government bond risk premia affected by the media in addition to the effects of major events? Revisiting the European debt crisis, we analyze the role of television news in the rise and re-convergence of GIIPS bond spreads vis-à-vis Germany from 2007 to 2016. We use a dataset of more than...

Recent experience shows that under certain conditions it can be assumed that de-mand for luxury goods is partly abnormal. To tackle the problem whether they can and should be taxed we (a) show that a positive slope of demand is possible by distinguishing snob and network benefits, (b)...

In economic literature comparisons between the American and German Council of Economic Advisors lead to the result that the American Council works quite well, whereas the German Council is broadly criticised. Taking a closer look these conclusions are disputable. Therefore, in this contribution...

The (socio-)psychological concepts of individual aspiration for conformity and consistency are integrated into the rational-choice framework. By using this integrative approach it is shown that after a shock the aspiration for conformity results in an equilibrium which deviates from the homo...

Bei aller Hysterie, die sich an Begriffen wie ?Klimakatastrophe? festmachen lässt und die aktuell fast schon zu Bestandteilen des Glaubensbekenntnis mutieren, ist es für Ökonomen, die sich mit Umwelt und Umweltgütern beschäftigen, umso wichtiger, nüchtern, abgewogen und rational zu...