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Forecasting the prices and rents for flats in large German cities

Kholodilin, Konstantin; Mense, Andreas - 2012

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579231

Think national, forecast local : a case study of 71 German urban housing markets

Kholodilin, Konstantin; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2015

possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482020

Forecasting employment for Germany

Hinz, Darius; Logeay, Camille - 2006 - First Version: November 2004, This version: January 9, 2006

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and … studies for West Germany and Germany, respectively. The authors find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output …Ziel des Papiers ist die Schätzung einer Beschäftigungsfunktion für Deutschland, die für Prognosen und Simulationen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744528

Business confidence and forecasting of housing prices and rents in large German cities

Kholodilin, Konstantin; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2014

households and account for a large proportion of bank lending. In Germany, the housing accounts for more than a half of wealth of … increases have been observed in Germany. This raised doubts and fears in German society. On the one hand, it is feared that … Germany can follow the path of Spain, Ireland, and other bubble countries that ended in a severe economic crisis. On the other …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505867

Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? : German evidence

Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2017

relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370

Academic ranking scales in economics : prediction and imputation

Zharova, Alona; Mihoci, Andrija; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2016

Publications are a vital element of any scientist’s career. It is not only the number of media outlets but aslo the quality of published research that enters decisions on jobs, salary, tenure, etc. Academic ranking scales in economics and other disciplines are, therefore, widely used in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011459002

Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps from overnight foreign stock price patterns

Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009

This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456

Forecasting house prices in Germany

Meulen, Philipp an de; Micheli, Martin; Schmidt, Torsten - 2011

developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and … können. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Preisentwicklungen für Deutschland in verschieden Segmenten des Immobilienmarktes am …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581044

A dynamic panel data approach to the forecasting of the GDP of German Länder

Kholodilin, Konstantin; Siliverstovs, Boriss; Kooths, Stefan - 2007 - Corrected version

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GDP for each of the 16 German Länder (states) simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, such as pooled and fixed-effects models, we apply panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490

How Useful is the Carry-Over Effect for Short-Term Economic Forecasting?

Tödter, Karl-Heinz - 2016

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991080