Although estimates of people’s values for public goods are often needed to conduct costbenefit analysis, existing value elicitation methods are prone to a number of well-documented biases. We argue that some of these biases result because people derive utility from the act of saying they are...

A relative increase in demand for quality can have one of two potentially countervailing effects: it can cause substitution of one quality for another and/or it might expand overall demand by bringing new consumers into the market. This article investigates demand expansion and substitution...

Several recent studies have found important differences between behavior in the laboratory and the field. We explore two possible causes for the divergence: social concerns and unfamiliarity with the traded good. Consistent with our conceptual model, we find that people overstated their...

In this article, we investigate the effect of several commonly used experimental designs on willingness-to-pay in a Monte Carlo environment where true utility parameters are known. All experimental designs considered in this study generated unbiased valuation estimates. However, random designs...

The effects of various supply and demand shifts on beef price, quantity, and industry welfare have been widely studied under the assumption of beef quality homogeneity. In this paper, we construct a model of the beef sector that incorporates differences in beef quality. The model is used to...

We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a...

Model selection is often conducted by ranking models by their out-of-sample forecast error. Such criteria only incorporate information about the expected value, whereas models usually describe the entire probability distribution. Hence, researchers may desire a criteria evaluating the...