In the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution - policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods - was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of...

A semiparametric varying coefficient model is used to explore the heterogeneity in returns to export promotion across countries. Differences in characteristics of export-promotion agencies drive the heterogeneity in returns. Interestingly, characteristics that matter for export growth do not...