The paper has a methodological character. It deals with possibilities of univariate time series models use in forecasting the regional labour market indicators. The main attention is focused on methodology for combining forecasts from different individual procedures. Forecasting performances of...

Mit den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen im Hinblick auf die bislang als Periodentafel angelegte Heubeck- Richttafel können nun die Annahmen der Prognoserechnung, die in der Literatur zur Analyse im Rahmen der betrieblichen Altersversorgung verwendet werden, korrigiert werden. Erstens muss...

The science/public/policy relationship is subject to deep changes. Taking these changesas a starting point, the following paper examines the changing foresight landscape in theEuropean Union, both from an institutional and from a methodological perspective. Thenecessity for a reorganisation of...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the pres-ence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanceddata is pervasive in economics and typically due to di¤erent sampling frequencies andpublication delays. Two model classes...

Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 - 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...