Das Gutachten untersucht, ob die IWF-Prognosen für den Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Welt und in der Gruppe der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer mithilfe von gängigen Frühindikatoren verbessert werden können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die Prognosegüte der IWF-Prognosen mit...

In this paper, the interaction between inflation and monetary policy rules is analysed within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model derived from optimising behaviour and rational expectations. Using model simulations, it is illustrated that the control of monetary policy over the...

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian...

We address a number of comparative issues relating to the performance of failure prediction models for small, private firms. We use two models provided by vendors, a model developed by the National Bank of Belgium, and the Altman Z-score model to investigate model power, the extent of...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a...

Konjunkturprognosen werden sinnvollerweise auf der Grundlage saisonbereinigter Daten erstellt, damit jahreszeitlich übliche Schwankungen ausgeschaltet werden. Kommt es aber zu extremen Witterungslagen, wenn etwa ein Winter besonders heftig oder aber auch besonders mild ausfällt, dann spiegeln...