Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account of causation in terms of Lewis's possible-world semantics, and reformulates the statistical potential outcome framework and its underlying assumptions using counterfactual...

In 2022, governments around the world committed USD 211 bn. to official development assistance. Despite these high contributions, systematic assessments of the determinants of success - or failure - of development aid projects remain limited, particularly for bilateral development aid. This...

We quantify micro and macro effects of changes in the potential benefit duration (PBD) in unemployment insurance. In Poland, the PBD is 12 months for newly unemployed if the previous year's county unemployment rate is more than 150% of the national average, and 6 months otherwise. We exploit...

This paper provides micro-econometric evidence on the effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMP) in Poland. We sketch the theoretical framework of matching estimators as a substitute for randomization in labor market programs. Using retrospective data from the 18th wave of the Polish...

Main description: Die im Rahmen der Hartz-Reformen auf den Weg gebrachten Änderungen der Arbeitsmarktgesetzgebung haben die rasche und nachhaltige Vermittlung in Arbeit, die Schaffung neuer Beschäftigungsfelder und den Bau von mehr Brücken in Beschäftigung zum Ziel. Hauptziel ist letztlich...

Viel wird über die "Hartz-Reformen" und ihre Effekte spekuliert, aber es gibt bislang so gut wie keine aussagekräftigen Belege, auf die sich derartige Schlussfolgerungen stützen können. Auch wenn sich viele Wirkungen erst im Zeitablauf richtig entfalten werden, besteht doch die Möglichkeit...

This paper evaluates the impact of an employment subsidy scheme covering employers' social contribution costs on registered employment in small firms in Turkey. It utilizes a rich, firm-level administrative data set with monthly frequency, which allows for closely following the dynamics of...

Rural electrification is believed to contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) via various channels. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of electrification on the household's lighting usage, home studying, energy expenditures and income. We use household data...