The paper proposes a simple estimator for a class of Conditional Expected Shortfall risk measures. The estimator is semiparametric, in the sense that it does not require a full specification of the conditional distribution of the data, and it is very simple to compute, being a least squares...

A numerical approximation of the critical values of Cramér-von Mises (CvM) tests is proposed for testing the correct specification of general conditional location parametric functionals. These specifications include conditional mean and quantile models. This method is based on estimation of the...

This paper proposes an asymptotically optimal specification test of single-index models against alternatives that lead to inconsistent estimates of a covariate’s average partial effect. The proposed tests are relevant when a researcher is concerned about a potential violation of the...

Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the most popular Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods are traditionally evaluated by means of the unconditional backtest. This paper formally shows that the...

This article proposes bootstrap-based stochastic dominance tests for nonparametric conditional distributions and their moments. We exploit the fact that a conditional distribution dominates the other if and only if the difference between the marginal joint distributions is monotonic in the...

This article proposes an omnibus test for monotonicity of nonparametric conditional distributions and its moments. Unlike previous proposals, our method does not require smooth estimation of the derivatives of nonparametric curves and it can be implemented even when the probability densities do...

We prove the strong consistency, uniformly in the bandwidth, of the smooth varying coefficient conditional least squares estimator. Our results justify data-driven choices of bandwidths, such as Silverman's rule-of thumb, or standard cross-validation, that are usually implemented by most...

This article proposes omnibus specification tests of parametric dynamic quantile models. In contrast to the existing procedures, we allow for a flexible specification, where a possible continuum of quantiles is simultaneously specified under fairly weak conditions on the serial dependence in the...

This paper proposes a simple, fairly general, test for global identification of unconditional moment restrictions implied from point-identified conditional moment restrictions. The test is based on the Hausdorff distance between an estimator that is consistent even under global...

A new estimator for linear models with endogenous regressors and strictly exogenous instruments is proposed. The new estimator, called the Integrated Instrumental Variables (IIV) estimator, only requires minimal assumptions to identify the true parameters, thereby providing a potential robust...