Since Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange...

Somemacroeconomic effects of deficit targeting are estimated in thispaper using my U.S. econometric model. The response of the economy to realand price shocks is examined in a number of cases. Each case corresponds toa particular assumption about fiscal policy and a particular assumptionabout...

A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z(t) in forming their expectations for periods t+l and beyond. These expectations may or may...

Three models of price and wage behavior are estimated and tested in this paper. Model 1 is one in which the long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms of rates of change; and Model 3 is one in which there is...

This paper considers that possibility that expected future government deficits directly affect economic decisions, in particular the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Some evidence is presented in Section II that indicates that the behavior of the Fed may be influenced by expected future...

This paper compares the Medoff-Fay estimates of labor hoarding during troughs, which are based on data from manufacturing plants, with aggregate estimates of excess labor on hand.The two sets of estimates seem consistent, which provides a strong argument in favor of the excess labor hypothesis....

Feldstein argues in his Fisher-Schultz Lecture that he has found, by accounting for inflation and taxes, large and significant rate of return effects on investment. His results are interesting because they seem to be robust to alternative specifications of the investment equation. Feldstein has...

Estimated effects of relative prices on trade shares are presented in this paper for 64 countries. The equations are estimated using pooled time series, cross section data under the assumption that the error term is serially correlated across time and heteroskedastic across countries. The...

This paper provides quantitative estimates of the output, price, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages among a number of countries. The econometric model that is used for this purpose is described in Fair (1981), and the present paper is an extension of this work. The linkages are examined...

A multi-country econometric model is presented in this paper. The theoretical basis of the model is discussed in Fair (l979a), and the present paper is an empirical extension of this work. The model is quarterly and contains estimated equations for 44 countries. Most of the equations have been...