In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election

Three models of price and wage behavior are estimated and tested in this paper. Model 1 is one in which the long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms of rates of change; and Model 3 is one in which there is...

This paper compares results from the narrative approach of Romer and Romer (1989) to those from the structural approach regarding the effects of monetary policy on real output. The results from both approaches lead to the conclusions that monetary policy matters and that the effects build slowly...

This paper presents a way of estimating how accurate VAR models are likely to be for answering structural questions. Data are generated from a dynamic deterministic solution of a structural model; a VAR model is estimated using a subset of these data; and the properties of the VAR model are...

There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem...

A forecast produced by an econometric model is a weighted aggregate of predetermined variables in the model. In many models the number of predetermined variables used is very large, often exceeding the number of observations. A method is proposed in this paper for testing an econometric model as...