This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/quadratic (LQ) model and a non-parametric model. Two estimation methods are used: 1) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled...

This paper presents a computationally feasible procedure for the optimal control and stochastic simulation of large nonlinear models with rational expectations under the assumption of certainty equivalence

This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time....

This paper lists 19 points that follow from results I have obtained using a structural macroeconomic model (SEM). Such models are more closely tied to the aggregate data than are DSGE models, and I argue that DSGE models and similar models should have properties that are consistent with these...

This paper discusses some macro links that are missing from trade models. A multicountry macroeconometric model is used to analyze the effects on the United States of increased import competition from China, an experiment that is common in the recent trade literature. In the macro story a fall...

A computationally feasible method for the full information maximum likelihood estimation of models with rational expectations is described in this paper. The stochastic simulation of such models is also described. The methods discussed in this paper should open the way for many more tests of the...

This paper considers the use of the polynomial distributed lag (PDL) technique when the lag length is estimated rather than fixed. We focus on the case where the degree of the polynomial is fixed, the polynomial is constrained to be zero at a certain lag length q, and q is estimated along with...

The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant. forecasts: the American...

The effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on various macroeconomic equations are examined in this paper. The equations include consumption, money demand, housing investment, and labor force participation equations. Seven age groups are analyzed: 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40- 54, 55-64,...

A forecast produced by an econometric model is a weighted aggregate of predetermined variables in the model. In many models the number of predetermined variables used is very large, often exceeding the number of observations. A method is proposed in this paper for testing an econometric model as...