Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it Have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard...

A solution method and an estimation method for nonlinear rational expectations models are presented in this paper. The solution method can be used in forecasting and policy applications and can handle models with serial correlation and multiple viewpoint dates. When applied to linear models, the...

Intro -- Contents -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The MC Model -- 3. Interest Rate Effects -- 4. Testing the NAIRU Model -- 5. U.S. Wealth Effects -- 6. Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s -- 7. A "Modern" View of Macroeconomics -- 8....

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous...