Die Güte makroökonomischer Prognosen hängt vom Konjunkturzyklus ab. Jannsen und Dovern (2017a) analysieren für 19 Länder eine Vielzahl von Prognosen für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt und zeigen, dass diese für Aufschwungphasen im Mittel zutreffend, für Rezessionen hingegen systematisch zu...

Die Konjunktur hat sich seit dem Jahreswechsel abgekühlt. Die Zuversicht der Unternehmen ist in den vergangenen Monat ausweislich Umfragen des ifo Instituts spürbar zurückgegangen. Auch die Auftragseingänge sind seit Jahresbeginn deutlich gesunken. Die langsamere konjunkturelle Gangart...

This paper illustrates the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, I propose adjusting hours per capita used to estimate such...

The standard search model of unemployment predicts, under realistic assumptions about household preferences, that disembodied technological progress leads to higher steady-state unemployment. This prediction is at odds with the 1970s experience of slow productivity growth and high unemployment...

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP...

During the 1970s, industrial countries, including the US and continental Europa, experienced a combination of slow productivity growth and high unemplyoment. Subsequent research has shown that the standard model of unemployment actually gives counterfactual predictions. Motivated by the...

The paper illustrates based on an example the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, the authors proposes adjusting...