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Policy mix problems may arise in a monetary union with centralized monetary policy and decentralized fiscal policy. A consequence of this may be an inappropriate stabilization of shocks. This paper addresses how policy coordination problems are affected by the objectives of the monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094279
This paper focuses on the forecasting process at the Czech National Bank with an emphasis on incorporating expert … judgments into forecasts and addressing data uncertainty. At the beginning, the core model and the forecasting process are … studies, which reflect policy issues addressed during forecasting rounds since 2008. Each case study first describes a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010833274
This paper aims to shed additional light on the existence of opportunistic and partisan political-business cycles in the Brazilian economy over the 1996-2016 period. To that end, it relies on two different approaches: (I) an Oaxaca model in the spirit of Blinder and Watson (2016); and (II) a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818003
Central banks repo market operations and liquidity infusions occasion a structural liquidity mismatch in bank balance sheets and increase the dependence on central bank liquidity. This paper argues for what I term “Circular Monetary Economics”, an approach to monetary policy that seeks to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825201
This paper re-examines the out-of-sample predictive power of interest rate spreads when the short-term nominal rates have been stuck at the zero lower bound and the Fed has used unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that the predictive power of some interest rate spreads have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108827
monetary policy. Standard rational expectations models can have alternative steady states as well as non-unique laws of motion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635903
This paper investigates the stabilization bias that arises in a model of monetary and fiscal policy stabilization of the economy, when assuming that the monetary authority put higher weight on inflation stabilization than society. We demonstrate that inflation-conservatism unambiguously leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220689
activism not only results in social welfare gains, but also helps to avoid expectations traps and even non-existence of stable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036034
We analyse the stability of countries within a monetary union in the face of asymmetric shocks, using a simple but widely applicable model. We show that members of the union may be subject to severe cycles following asymmetric shocks if there is a significant backward looking element in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014064465
This paper investigates the importance of fiscal policy in providing macroeconomic stabilisation in a monetary union. We use a microfounded New Keynesian model of a monetary union which incorporates persistence in inflation, and examine non-cooperative interactions of fiscal and monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014064473