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How Low Can Central Banks Go? The Banking Threshold to Negative Interest Rates
Berriel, Tiago - 2019
Abstract Negative interest rates policies (NIRP), usually depicted in economic textbooks as an impossibility due to the prospect of infinite demand for money, are now a reality in several countries due to different reasons. But while the ZLB has been surpassed when it comes to Central Banks, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899581
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The Drivers of Post-Pandemic Inflation
Giannone, Domenico; Primiceri, Giorgio E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but also in the Euro Area. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
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Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales
Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
Several recent studies imply that the response of national saving to fiscal policy is non-monotonic. In this paper, we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non-monotonic responses arise: one refers to a sample of OECD countries, as in previous studies, and one to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124252
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Sovereign default risk, macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary-fiscal stabilization
Kirchner, Markus; Rieth, Malte - 2021
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607430
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A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF
Allayioti, Anastasia; Arioli, Rodolfo; Bates, Colm; … - 2024
economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties … unemployment rate - the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In …) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015156735
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Improving the ECB's policy strategy
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2025
The ECB can fulfil its mandate better and contribute to a stronger Europe by adopting sensible rules instead of relying on discretionary decision-making. A simple rule for the policy rate can promote systematic monetary policy and protect against significant policy errors. Ending the reliance on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015413857
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Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik Hendrik - 2012
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368524
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Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
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Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik H. - Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, … - 2013
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010954828
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Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
Wolters, Maik Hendrik - House of Finance, Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main - 2012
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955291