This study explores the dynamics of monthly metal prices during the past 100 years. On the basis of a unique data set, co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends are analyzed by means of common statistical methods and the results are compared to the findings in the literature. Due to its...

In this paper we model the dynamics of 100 years long monthly price series of eight non-ferrous and precious metals. Applying the state space framework we impose and identify two common factors related to non-ferrous and precious metals, respectively, which exhibit quite distinct autoregressive...

Seit mehr als einem Jahr ist der Preisanstieg im Euroraum im Trend rückläufig. Angesichts der geringen Inflationsrate wird über ein mögliches Abrutschen in eine Deflation diskutiert. Wie groß ist diese Gefahr und wie sollte die EZB reagieren? Das wahrscheinlichere Szenario der nächsten...

This study focuses on the question whether nonlinear transformation of lagged time series values and residuals are able to systematically improve the average forecasting performance of simple Autoregressive models. Furthermore it investigates the potential superior forecasting results of a...