In this paper, we use a non-parametric regression method to compare the transition process from high to low inflation with the implementation dates of central bank independence reforms. In a majority of the countries, price stability is achieved before more independence is given to the central...

In this paper we present guaranteed-content prediction intervals for time series data. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They are thus more relevant for the observed time series at hand than classical prediction intervals,...

In this paper we perform inference on the effect of a treatment on survival times in studies where the treatment assignment is not randomized and the assignment time is not known in advance. Two such studies are discussed: a heart transplant program and a study of Swedish unemployed eligible for...

In observational studies, the estimation of a treatment effect on an outcome of interest is often done by controlling on a set of pre-treatment characteristics (covariates). This yields an unbiased estimator of the treatment effect when the assumption of unconfoundedness holds, that is, there...

We propose a general test for exogeneity that is robust against distributional misspecification. The test can also be used to identify other types of misspecifications, such as the presence of a random coefficient. The idea is to sort the data with respect to a variable (a sorting score) and...

We show that in sorting cross-sectional data, the endogeneity of a variable may be successfully detected by graphically examining the cumulative sum of the recursive residuals. An interesting case arises with a continuous or ordered (e.g., years of schooling) endogenous variable. Then, a...

In this paper a comparative study of the regime shift in inflation policies in New Zealand and Sweden is performed. We use a non-parametric regression method to decompose the inflation time series into three components of variation: a long-term trend, a medium-term (cyclical and transient...

The simulation-based inferential method called indirect inference was originally proposed for statistical models whose likelihood is difficult or even impossible to compute and/or to maximize. In this paper, indirect estimation is proposed as a device to robustify the estimation for models where...

Abadie and Imbens (2008, Econometrica) showed that classical bootstrap schemes fail to provide correct inference for K-nearest neighbour (KNN) matching estimators of average causal effects. This is an interesting result showing that bootstrap should not be applied without theoretical...