We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs) of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. An advantage of our procedure is that it allows researchers to select the impulse responses that...

This dissertation is motivated by the fact that while the literature has had a great deal of success in developing empirical models for monetary policy analysis, the same can not be said for fiscal policy. This work advances our understanding of various issues in identification and modeling of...

According to the Purchasing Power Parity {(PPP)} theory, real exchange rate fluctuations are mainly caused by transitory shocks. The theory fits well one empirical feature of the data, namely the short-run volatility of real exchange rates, but also implies that shocks should die away in one to...

This paper develops optimal tests for model selection between two nested models in the presence of underlying parameter instability. These are joint tests for both parameter instability and a null hypothesis on (a subset of) the parameters. They modify the existing tests for parameter...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...

We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identifies economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks." We show how to identify such shocks and how to trace their effects in the economy via VARs using "VARs with functional...

We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample performance of the model, judged by some loss...

The goal of this paper is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified non-nested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global performance,...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...