This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of...

We collect data on 75 million GBP of tennis bets over a 6 year period to analyse whether participants in high-stakes environments recognise simple framing differences. The structure of this market means that we can place the same bet at the same time in two different ways. These two isomorphic...

Two popular methods for aggregating individual forecasts are prediction markets, where participants bet on the outcome of future events, and forecasting contests, where participants are ranked according to the accuracy of their forecasts. Can these methods be used in concert to produce more...

We study individuals who each chose to predict the outcome of fixed events in an online competition, namely all football matches during the 2017/18 season of the English Premier League. We ask whether any forecast revisions the individuals chose to make (or not), before the matches began,...