To achieve well calibrated probabilistic forecasts, ensemble forecasts often need to be statistically post-processed. One recent ensemble-calibration method is extended logistic regression which extends the popular logistic regression to yield full probability distribution forecasts. Although...

To achieve well calibrated probabilistic forecasts, ensemble forecasts often need to be statistically post-processed. One recent ensemble-calibration method is extended logistic regression which extends the popular logistic regression to yield full probability distribution forecasts. Although...

Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category...

Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category...

Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category...

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 hours are generally made by using statistical methods to postprocess forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that...

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 hours are generally made by using statistical methods to postprocess forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that...

Accurate wind power forecasts highly contribute to the integration of wind power into power systems. The focus of the present study is on large-scale offshore wind farms and the complexity of generating accurate probabilistic forecasts of wind power fluctuations at time-scales of a few minutes....

Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors...

Majority of the load forecasting literature has been on point forecasting, which provides the expected value for each step throughout the forecast horizon. In the smart grid era, the electricity demand is more active and less predictable than ever before. As a result, probabilistic load...