The issue of the backward-looking versus the forward-looking Phillips curve is still an open question in the macroeconomics profession. We identify a crucial difference between the two hypotheses concerning the real output effects of monetary policy shocks. The backward-looking Phillips curve...

The issue of the backward-looking versus the forward-looking Phillips curve is still an open question in the macroeconomics profession. We identify the real output effects of monetary policy shocks as a crucial implication of the traditional Phillips curve. The backward-looking Phillips curve...

While the well-known twin currency and banking crises has drawn a lot of interest a second type of twin crises, the simultaneous occurrence of currency and debt crises, has so far been neglected in the literature. The decision of a government to devalue and/or to default is closely interlinked...

The empirical analysis gives clear evidence of regional convergence in West Germany: poorer regions tend to grow faster than richer ones. In the period 1957-88, the speed of convergence was around 4 percent per year, implying a halving of the difference between actual and steady-state income...

Building on a benchmark sample of 78 middle-income countries and based on generalized linear model (glm) estimations we assess the risk of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine to experience currency and / or debt crises as other emerging market economies have repeatedly done before. We find...

The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications it is possible to directly...