It is shown that the limiting distribution of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test under the null hypothesis of a unit root is valid under a very general set of assumptions that goes far beyond the linear AR (∞) process assumption typically imposed. In essence, all that is required is...

The problem of prediction is revisited with a view towards going beyond the typical nonparametric setting and reaching a fully model-free environment for predictive inference, i.e., point predictors and predictive intervals. A basic principle of model-free prediction is laid out based on the...

In order to construct prediction intervals without the combersome--and typically unjustifiable--assumption of Gaussianity, some form of resampling is necessary. The regression set-up has been well-studies in the literature but time series prediction faces additional difficulties. The paper at...

A new resampling procedure, the continuous-path block bootstrap, is proposed in the context of testing for integrated (unit root) time series. The continuous-path block bootstrap (CBB) is a nonparametric procedure that successfully generates unit root integrated pseudo time series retaining the...

We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 countries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer confidence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the...

This study presents extensive results on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging can be...

We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...

We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...

Almost all fisher models assume time-invariant parameter values of the underlying biological growth function except for an i.i.d. error term. We examine the economic implications of cyclical growth parameters in both single and multi-species models, which are frequently observed in many...

Consideration sets have become a central concept in the study of consumer behavior. Frequently, consumers are asked to split choice alternatives into those that that they would consider and those that they would not. Information on alternatives not in the consideration set is then typically not...