A variable is defined to be self-generating if it can be forecast efficiently from its own past only. Conditions are derived for certain linear combinations to be self-generating in error correction models. Interestingly, there are only two candidates for self-generation in an error correction...

This paper assumes that in addition to the conventional (selfish) preferences over outcomes, players in a strategic environment have preferences over strategies. In the context of two-player games, it provides conditions under which a player's preferences over strategies can be represented as a...

In this paper, we propose a new family of multivariate loss functions that can be used to test the rationality of vector forecasts without assuming independence across individual variables. When only one variable is of interest, the loss function reduces to the flexible asymmetric family...

This paper examines a class of contractual relationships with specific investment, a non-durable trading opportunity, and renegotiation. Trade actions are modeled as individual and trade-action-based option contracts (“non-forcing contractsâ€) are explored. The paper identifies an...

This note shows that a very simple model can generate returns that resemble most of the temporal and distributional behavior of long returns surprisingly well. The model is based on the stochastic unit root process introduced in Granger and Swanson (1997).

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural...

This paper develops a theoretical framework for studying contract and enforcement in setting of complete, but unverifiable, information. The main point of the paper is that the consideration of renegotiation necessitates formal examination of other technological constraints, especially those...

Very large data sets in economics are already available and will soon become commonplace. The econometric techniques currently in use may not be relevant and new techniques will have to be devised. It can be argued that most tests of significance, linear models, assumptions of normality, and...