A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. We reconsider this issue from the vantage point of bounded rationality....

This paper develops and implements a GMM estimator for latent class models suitable for count data. The estimator uses conditional moment restrictions derived from standard count models. Both the efficient and consistent variants are considered. The implementation of optimal GMM based on...

In the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms, the covariance matrix of the parameter estimator is often estimated using a nonparametric kernel method that involves a lag truncation parameter. Depending on whether this lag truncation parameter is specified to grow at...

Retail gasoline prices are known to respond fairly slowly to wholesale price changes. This does not appear to be true for markets with Edgeworth price cycles. Recently, many retail gasoline markets in the midwestern U.S. and in other countries have been shown to exhibit price cycles, in which...

A recent literature in finance concerns a curious recurring feature of estimated pricing kernels. Classical theory dictates that the pricing kernel { defined loosely as the ratio of Arrow security prices to an objective probability measure { should be a decreasing function of aggregate...

This paper proposes a theoretical explanation to the common empirical results in which different tests for cointegration give different answers. Using local to unity parametrization I compute the analytical power of some tests for the null of no cointegration: The ADF test on the residuals of...

Many economic and econometric applications require the integration of functions lacking a closed form antiderivative, which is therefore a task that can only be solved by numerical methods. We propose a new family of probability densities that can be used as substitutes and have the property of...

We study the dependence properties of stationary Markov chains generated by Archimedean copulas. Under some simple regularity conditions, we show that regular variation of the Archimedean generator at zero and one implies geometric orgodicityof the associated Markov chain. We verify our...