In this paper a bank faces excess demand in the loan market, can sort loan applicants by an observable measure of quality, and faces a small but positive probability of default. The bank uses two policies to allocate credit: (i) tighten restrictions on loan quality; (ii) limit the number of...

The impact of the business cycle on banks’ internally generated cash flow is an important driver in the pro-cyclical dynamics of the traditional banking business and yet the issue has been understated in the discussion on counter-cyclical regulations. Considerable attention has been given to...

This paper aims at identifying the underlying reasons for substantial accumulation of foreign reserves, a strategy currently followed by a large number of countries. To this end, it first studies international liquidity conditions and individual country demand for reserves. It then analyses...

Monetary policymaking requires an adequate appraisal of price dynamics and reliable forecasts for short and medium term inflation. Since the relevant inflation for monetary policy purpose may not be adequately measured by conventional consumer price indexes, there is a need for core inflation...

Economic policy usually faces a number of risks and uncertainties, as a byproduct of the changing nature of signals, the economic structure, the interaction of aggregate variables, the mutations in the behavior of economic agents and their reaction to policy decisions. It is generally...

The last few years have seen an explosion of Dynamic and Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models built for policy analysis and forecasting in industrialized countries. The set of papers presented to the recent joint U.S. Federal Reserve Board-European Central Bank-IMF conference: "DSGE...