This article reviews new and rigorous methods for analyzing narrative data and over-time data more generally. It locates these new methods within a general turn away from the “variables paradigm.â€

Procyclical government spending occurs when government expenditures increase at a faster rate than income in an economic upturn but fall at a faster rate in a recession. Voracity effects occur when competition for increased spending proves more effective as national income increases. Public...

This paper tests the predictions that (i) sub-central government expenditures are procyclical and (ii) sub-central government expenditures are likely to be more procyclical than central government spending. The predictions are based on the importance of ‘voracity effects’ and on the...

In this paper we investigate the relationship between trade intensity and the business cycle correlation using a panel data set taken from 24 countries over the period 1959-2003. Most previous studies did not account for the possibility that the business cycle correlation may be influenced by...

Countercyclical government spending offers social protection to the vulnerable when economies move into recession. This paper questions the extent to which governments are able to spend countercyclically and the extent to which social expenditures are likely to be countercyclical. An analysis of...

This paper explores the way governments rely on budgets. Budgets are classified with reference to functions (e.g. defence, education, etc.), but expenditure from one budget (e.g. the overseas budget) can prove as effective as expenditure from another budget (e.g. the environment budget) when...

This paper tests for differences in the cyclicality of government spending across functional categories. Evidence from 20 OECD countries suggests that procyclicality is more likely in smaller functional budgets, but capital spending is more likely to be procyclical for the larger spending...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the structural changes in the UK brewing industry, resulting from the Monopolies and Mergers Commission's (MMC) Beer Orders, 1989. Our discussion is supported by an empirical analysis of the effects of these recommendations on the demand for beer in the UK....