The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles implies different values for the slope coefficient of alternative efficient market hypothesis tests depending on whether the bubble is in an explosive regime or not. We exploit this fact and propose a new method for bubble...

We exploit a rather neglected source of data, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle to shed light on the behaviour of daily and weekly exchange rates throughout several interwar hyperinflation episodes. The purpose of our analysis is three-fold: firstly, we investigate the consistency of...

Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers and provided the impetus for the adoption of particular classes of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful as an ex post...

Whilst Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) provides an explanation of gambling on longshots at actuarially unfair odds, it cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes. This paper shows that this is explicable if the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is reduced for...

Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers and provided the impetus for the adoption of particular classes of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful as an ex post...

Whilst Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) provides an explanation of gambling on longshots at actuarially unfair odds, it cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes. This paper shows that this is explicable if the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is reduced for...

Whilst Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) provides an explanation of gambling on longshots at actuarially unfair odds, it cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes. This paper shows that this is explicable if the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is reduced for...

Previous empirical work on the Purchasing Power Parity does not explicitly account for time-varying trade costs. Motivated by the recent gravity literature we incorporate a microfounded measure of trade costs into two nonlinear regression models for the real exchange rate. Using data for the...

In this paper we propose a globally stationary augmentation of the Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) model that allows for multiple fixed points in the transition function. An F-type test statistic for the null of nonstationarity against such globally stationary nonlinear...

A number of authors have found significant cointegrating relationships between spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels for the major currencies where the magnitude of the coefficients makes economic interpretation of PPP cumbersome. Using theoretically well motivated nonlinear...