This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of...

Dynamic microsimulation modelling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We...

There is growing interest in the analysis and measurement of social exclusion, to complement the static and dynamic literature on income poverty. On theoretical grounds, social exclusion and income poverty are seen as different processes, but with closely interrelated dynamics. However, our...

In the late 1990s many European countries started comprehensive restructuring of their energy industries, the typical ingredients of the reforms are full or partial privatization, vertical disintegration, liberalization. In this paper we focus on the way in which energy sector reforms affect...

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and...

This paper attempts to combine the analysis of wage (income) polarization with that of wage (income) mobility. Using the polarization index PG recently proposed by Deutsch et al. (2007) it shows that, when taking the identity of the individuals into account (working with panel data), a...

According to Sen’s capability approach, objective working conditions can be seen as functionings (i.e. things experienced by the individuals). The corresponding capability set includes all sets of alternatives working conditions existing in the society for a given kind of job. Observing the...

In Italy, about 28% of young males starting their first job in the private sector during 1989-1993 left their jobs in the first two years; some of them experienced job to job transitions but the majority of them experienced long jobless periods. A number of empirical studies suggest that the...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

We empirically model individual utility from pay as function of worker’s own wage and the earnings of all other workers within the same establishment. The aims of this paper are twofold: first, to study the mechanisms underlying the importance of relative wages in determining worker...