We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...

We analyze the relationship between economic uncertainty and commodity market volatility. We find that commodity market volatility comoves strongly with economic and financial uncertainty, especially during recessions. Variables associated with credit risk, financial market stress, and...

We develop a framework to quantify the convenience yield risk (CYR) inherent to each commodity futures market. Implementing our approach, we document that our novel CYR measure is informative about future commodity returns. In panel regressions, the CYR predicts future returns with a positive...

We contribute to the literature by analyzing forecast combination methods in the context of machine learning to predict equity returns. Whilst individual models lack robustness, forecast combinations display stability and are able to produce improved results with Sharpe ratios up to 3.16. We use...

In this paper we study the stochastic behavior of the prices and volatilities of a sample of six of the most important commodity markets and we compare these properties to those of the equity market. We observe a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the behavior of the series. Our findings...

<title>Abstract</title> In this paper we study the stochastic behavior of the prices and volatilities of a sample of six of the most important commodity markets and we compare these properties with those of the equity market. we observe a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the behavior of the series. Our...

This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples.

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying...